Our latest video outlook issued at 20/11/2012



Notes from this video
Latest cyclone update.

A LOW just east of the Solomon Islands has about a 50-60% chance of makingit to Tropical Cyclone intensity and most likely within the next 48 hours before it encounters an increasingly hostile environment. It is expected to push to the SW over the next 12-18 hours before shifting towards the south and then south-east. At this stage it is very unlikely to enter into the Australian waters.

North Australia is expected to see a lull in activity starting next week until about mid December.

The next MJO is expected to be reasonably strong and will start to push into far western Australian waters 90 - 120E around the third week of December.

A monsoon trough could form in around the middle part of December over the SE Indian Ocean and then over the Australian region during Christmas week.

Based on current MJO forecasts cyclone potential increases in the SE Indian Ocean during the week beginning 18th December and then over the rest of Australia from about Christmas Day.

Remember our outlook is not doneby qulified meteorologists. for an official outlook please consult the Bureau of Meteorology at www.bom.gov.au

Our next update will be released Friday night.

OCC Cyclone update November 23 2012



NOTES FROM THIS UPDATE
Fijian LOW did not make cyclone status is now dead and merged with a front/trough system

Satellite analysis shows a lot of moist air being dragged in from the very warm waters off the far northern Kimberley creating scattered heavy thunderstorm activity. However there is no evidence of any organised convection.

SST anomalies show the SE Indian Ocean is up to 3 degrees warmer in parts compared to the average this is assisting moisture transfer onto the Kimberley coastline

SST are supportive should any tropical cyclones form in the Australian AOR from now on.

The next 10 days sees the potential for heavy rain producing storms in the Northern Kimberley and along the west coast of the Territory (up to 100mm). More isolated activity over the SE Gulf (20-25mm) and some rain along the east Queensland coast between Cairns to Sarina (20-50mm) along a moist easterly wind stream off the Coral sea. Remaining unseasonally slow over NE NT and northern and far northern Queensland

Asian trade winds lookset to increase dramatically between 10 - 20 December 2012. This increase due to development and intensification of the Asian HIGHS looks set to impact the SE Indian ocean about 3-5 days later.

As this NW burst develops models are hinting at the development of a LOW off the North Kimberley coast to Indonesian region. This LOW may encounter some favourable developmental conditions at the time but it is too far away for us to say with any certainty.

The CFS model is not very interested at all, but the Euro monthly control run has a strong tropical LOW or weak cyclone approaching the south Kimberley or far East Pilbara coast between 15 - 20 December. There is a VERY LOW confidence in this overall though.

MJO forecast remains widely varied between a strong signature to a very weak one by the time it hits Australia so it's difficult to predict how strong the first monsoon burst will be.

Next week no development expected

First week in December very low chance of development over SE Indian Ocean

Second week in December low chance of development early grading to moderate chance later in the week as the cross equatorial flow begins to strengthen off the NW coast

Third week of December (ending on the 23rd December) Moderate potential for activity along with moderate potential for Monsoon trough formation with a reasonably good outlook confidence that something will try happening in this week. There is also a very low potential for activity near the Solomons but with a very low outlook confidence in this area.

Next shorter update Tuesday 27th November 2012

OCC CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
27TH NOVEMBER 2012



MAJOR POINTS FROM VIDEO

Tropical Storm Bopha has developed very close to the equator. Quite a remarkable system that could end up being quite a strong typhoon.

Satellite shows a typical build up period with strong storms developing over inland NT and the Kimberley. No organised convection

Great rain expected over western NT and the Kimberley and possibly even the Pilbara. Also some falls on the eastern coast of Queensland expected from this weekend helping to ease the dry conditions there.

Overall the build up gains momentum over the next fortnight due to trough systems.

The next MJO is expected to be weak and erratic with a lot of model disagreement about its arrival and strength when it gets to Australia. Most likely to arrive between 15 - 27 December

THIS WEEK
No development. A LOW may form in the SW Pacific well out of our region and continue to go further away.

NEXT WEEK
Very Low chance of LOW development next weekend (7th December onwards)

10-16DEC
Low to Moderate potential of a LOW developing west of the Kimberley. Noclear idea on direction

17-23 DEC
Moderate potential for a tropical LOW to form and strengthen between Indonesia and the Kimberley. At this stage it's favored to move from SE to WSW. very Low potential of a LOW to develop near the Solomons later in the week.


Next update Friday November 30 2012

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS VIDEO OUTLOOK

NOVEMBER 30 2012



MAJOR POINTS FROM VIDEO

(1) Interactive chat about Bopha with Western Pacific Weather westernpacificweather.com at 03z tomorrow (1PM Qld time, 12:30PM NT time, and i don't know what time that is in WA LOL). Join in or go and have a look as we will be doing that this season too for Aussie cyclones.

(2) Satellite once again shows no organised convection except for that found along a Central Australian trough line. Alsoshows heaps of wind shear and dry air in the Coral Sea

(3) Good rain expected over Kimberley and Western Top end, also possible trickling into Central WA and the Pilbara coastline over the next 10 days.

(4) MJO forecast remains highly uncertain. The MJO is currently weak and models are struggling with its progression in terms of intensity and speed.

(5) NOAA's global hazard outlook suggests some cyclone potential to be present in the Central Indian Ocean just west of the Aussie AOR (Area of Responsibility)

(6) We are likely to see a rapid change from a Winter to a monsoonal pattern sometime between December 10-15 just north of Australia. This rapid change may induce two LOW pressure systems.

(7) LOW 1 is favoured to form around the 12-16th December 2012 off the Kimberley coastline, drift west and then curve to the south. How far it drifts west will be the key here. Best available guidance suggests an eventual impact on the Kimberley or Pilbara coastline between December 15 - December 20.

( LOW 2 favoured to form near the Solomon Islands around the same time as LOW 1. LOW 2 may be a part of a particularly active SPCZ/trough system and so may not actually be a tropical cyclone/tropical LOW but rather an elongated LOW. It will very likely push SE dueto strong upper level westerly winds in the Coral Sea.

(9) NEXT WEEK
Nothing

(10) 10-16 December
Starts slow a LOW pressure system should form later in this week (50+% chance)and drift westwards initially before curving towards the south. Also a 20-30% chance of some development near the Solomons

(11) 17 - 23 Dec
Remnants of already developed LOW should still be around, or if the lOW hasn't formed yet, it should do during this week near the Kimberley. Potential once again for an active SPCZ which may or may not spawn another LOW

(12) 23-30Dec
A few potential regions of development in this week but all reasonably low potentials. Area 1 a little further offshore in the SE Indian Ocean, Area 2 Over the Western gulf, Area 3 Over the far northern Coral Sea. Onviously way too early to speculate on any of those given the potential of weeks 2 and 3.

hi im a new member plz tell me how to put photos on thanks

Hi Storm kid,

Just hit the reply button and then at the bottom of the text box click on "Add File"

Or if your image is online already, you can just hit the "Image Link" button on the top row of buttons available to you.

Cheers, Nitso

OCC AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
DECEMBER 4 2012


POINTS FROM THIS VIDEO
(1) MJO to remain weak, but large uncertainty in its forecast long term.

(2) Bopha is actually going to slow down the development/formation of the Australian Monsoon by limiting the cross equatorial flow into Northern Australia .

(3) A weak monsoon or organised equatorial trough may form late next week or early the week after around Indonesia and PNG.

(4) Continued terrible build up to the 2012/2013 wet season for most of NE Australia in the next fortnight. Average conditions over the rest of Northern Australia.

THIS WEEK
No development near Australia

NEXT WEEK
Some potential existing near the northern tip of the cape and into the Arafura Sea. Only low potential at this stage due to a lack of Nw flow.

17-23 DEC
Moderate probability once again continuing in that North Kimberley area.

24 - 30 DEC
Moderate to High probability in the Kimberley/SE Indian Ocean. Will hopefully see the MT begin to show reasonable strength this week or the week after this.

OVERALL
Bopha will slow down the onset of the cross flow by at least 10 days So any LoWS that do form in the meantime will not have great surface environmental support. Upper conditions will be perfect though so if something can spin itself up, wind shear, dry air etc are unlikely to hinder its development north of about 12-15 degrees south. Unfortunately without a surface trough line such development is unlikely to begin with.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
DECEMBER 7 2012



Our Latest Cyclone Outlook for Australia issued on December 7th 2012

Major Points
(1) No organised storm activity over Australia at the moment

(2) Solomon Sea LOW will develop over the weekend and remain quite weak

(3) Rainfall next week looks interesting over Northern Australia with a sharp increase in general falls over the inland parts of Northern Queensland and the Territory expected as well as more general storm activity over the kimberley.

(4) Later next week an upper LOW and surface LOW may form off the SE Queensland coast. There is about a 30% probability in this development. It may kick up some wild seas and strong winds as well as some showers/rain near the coastal fringe.

(5) A tropical LOW may also form near the Southern Gulf Country and increase rainfall there in 12-14 days.

(6) A Fiji LOW/cyclone could form near the dateline in a couple of weeks that could form into a tropical cyclone but should not approach Australia.

(7) The next MJO looks to be quite strong according to ensemble guidance. However I personally remain highly skeptical after the previous MJO forecast was quite off by models. It should be almost entering Phase

( The most significant Tropical development to threaten Australia still appears likely to occur near the Kimberley coastline on the 20th - 24th December. At this stage it could adopt a slow westward drift and deepen in a reasonably favourable environment.

Our next shorter 10-12 minute update will be issued on December 11 2012

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
11 DECEMBER 2012



Major discussion points

Strong convection evident over NW WA and north, and east of a surface trough over inland Australia.

Surface trough system expected to bring good rain to eastern Queensland late on weekend and into next week.

Solomon Sea LOW to be dead within 24-36 hours

Fijian LOW/Cyclone huge model disagreement as to future intensity and track. At this stage it looks like ECMWF is undercooking intensity while GFS is overcooking it. As for exact path, it is too difficult to tell.

NW WA getting set for action in that region between 20th to 26th December. Initially a LOW developing off the Kimberley coastline and drifting to the west or wsw in response to upper ridging is the favoured scenario.

Longer term projection of LOW movement is between WSW to SW to S at this stage there is no clear favoured long term movement path.

It is too difficult to ascertain or predict potential strength of this system. But a general deepening trend is expected.

Updates from now on will begin to focus on this region as the LOW pressure development nears and the MJO signature intensifies and pushes towards it.

After Christmas we continue to see moderate probabilities for LOWS in the Gulf and the NW with a Low to MOD probability of one even forming in the NW Coral Sea early to mid January.

http://www.abc.net.au/local/audio/2012/12/11/3652205.htm?site=northwestwa - our interview with ABC Radio North-West

Next update scheduled for friday, but may be brought forward depending on NW WA situation.

If you like our updates please support us by clicking on an ad in the video which helps us pay for our chases. thank you

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS CYCLONE UPDATE

DECEMBER 14 2012

UPDATE GOES FOR 25 MINUTES, PLEASE FAST FORWARD TO THE FOLLOWING POINTS DEPENDING ON WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR ABOUT



0:00 - 4:30 current conditions around tropical Australia

4:30 - 7:10 - MJO forecast

7:10 - 20:30 - TC Evan discussion

20:30 - 22:30 - NW WA situation

22:30 - 25:30 - The next 4 weeks

HIGHLIGHTS TONIGHT
Great storm activity continues for NW parts and Nthn parts of Australia with the exception of NE Queensland and NE NT

Very warm anomalies in SST's continue off NW WA

'kick ass' storm activity expected to continue over NW Australia and develop over parts of Queensland so if you're doing nothing get out there and chase them

MJO forecast is moving slower than expected and further delaying onset of our Australian monsoon. Wide variance in model forecast intensity and timing of the MJO. At this stage the delay is causing probability of cyclone development to remain low until the last few days of December.

TC Evan - Official track still has a high degree of uncertainty attached to it both in terms of intensity and position/track.

Models continue to trend towards the west with each run and hopefully this will mean the cyclone will pass west of the main island.

Much depends on the development of an Upper HIGH on Sunday just south of Fiji, if the Upper HIGH remains in place and strong, the system will steer well west of Fiji.If not, the system will track much closer to the island.

Remnants of Evan once he is sheared away may move west or north-west and into the far eastern Coral Sea.

Potential for a pre-Christmas WA cyclone has now dropped, however this doesn't mean the potential has been dropped altogether, in fact quite the opposite.

The probability for a LOW or cyclone in the week after Christmas has sky rocketed with the MJO expected to get here a little after Christmas and possible be reasonably strong.

Further into January it looks like decent probabilities remain for cyclone potential over the Gulf and the Timor Sea with lessened probabilities in the Coral Sea.

Next update Tuesday 18 December 2012
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE

DECEMBER 18 2012

UPDATE GOES FOR 16 MINUTES, PLEASE FAST FORWARD TO THE FOLLOWING POINTS DEPENDING ON WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR ABOUT

VIDEO TIMELINE
0:00 - 4:10 - MJO forecast, Tropical Climate Note and the current WA LOW
4:10 - 7:20 - East Asian synoptic pattern and our monsoon formation
7:20 - 11:30 - The upcoming Pilbara/Kimberley LOW pressure system
11:30 - 16:20 - The next month in tropical LOWS and cyclones



MAJOR POINTS
(1) Current WA LOW near 10S/98E is not overly interesting models and will not affect WA's mainlan coast

(2) Next week is likely to be pretty dull (until the end of the week) with a weak monsoon possibly moving south towards the top end coast, but interest may increase as the Pilbara/Kimberley LOW forms just after Christmas.

(3) MJO approaches Australia in the last day or two of December or in the first couple of days of January. This will likely result in the onset of the real wet season a few days after that.

(4) Models getting onboard with LOW pressure system formation near Pilbara coastline or well off the Kimberley coastline. A general deepening trend is expected but no models are tipping an overly strong tropical cyclone to form just yet. The LOW forms between December 25 - January 1 and direction remains unclear.

(5) Longer term modeling suggests the top end coast could be the spawning areafor LOW number 2 in early to mid January.

(6) At this stage, the Coral Sea remaining dormant, however some weak trough systems near the Solomons will need to be watched in early to mid January.

(7) Our Android app should be just days away from launching and our iPhone app is 2 weeks away from launching We are very excited.

Next update on December 21 will look at the Christmas Day outlook around the Tropics and delve into the chances of that LOW forming around christmas to New Years

Remember if you'd like to support our chases, please click on an ad in our video

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
DECEMBER 21 2012



VIDEO TIMELINE - VIDEO GOES FOR 22 MINUTES
0:00 - 2:05 CURRENT CONDITIONS
2:05 - 3:10 NEXT 2 WEEKS
3:10 - 6:25 MJO DISCUSSION
6:25 - 7:45 DISCUSSION OF CURRENT WA LOW
7:45 - 14:20 DISCUSSION OF POSSIBLE NEW WA LOW
14:20 - 20:30 DISCUSSION OF NEW SW PACIFIC POTENTIAL LOW/CYCLONE
20:30 - 22:10 - WRAP UP


MAJOR POINTS
Continuing great convection flaring up over Australia

Next 2 weeks should finally see some rain over the Queensland coast. and general increase in rainfall over tropics. Perhaps a very very weak monsoon.

MJO almost non-existent, forecast is highly varied but overall suggestive of Phase 4 (Australian) MJO signature in early January = increase in rainfall and onset of wet season around that time. Still a very wide ranging forecast though, so confidence in it is low.

Current WA LOW to move west and not deepen significantly

New WA LOW to form to the NW of Kimberley around Christmas time and push to the west. Latest models do not deepen this system significantly. The system encounters a lot of dry air at the time, and this limits the potential for it to deepen. However, once again, this will need to be monitored very closely.

New development in the SW Pacific also expected around Christmas time to the East of the Solomons and pushing SW initially. This LOW is expected by current modelling to develop further as it then drifts to the south or south-east slowly. The system may make tropical cyclone intensity before the end of the year. The actual steering of the system is still reasonably unclear so while a general southerly drift will occur, there is a slight chance of a westerly movement as well in the longer term. Once again this will need to be watched closely.

No 4 week outlook at the moment due to the inconsistent MJO signature, BUT rainfalls over northern Australia will increase in early January as will cyclone potential.

If you enjoy our updates, please click on an in-video ad for us and this helps us to pay for the things that we do. Thanks for your support.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
DECEMBER 24 2012



Tonight's 15 minute update looks at the rainfall potential for Christmas day followed by a look at the cyclone outlooks for Western Australia and Queensland. We focus on the Coral Sea system.

We have also decided to extend our Typhoon Bopha fundraising efforts until New Years Eve, so if you'd like to donate some money to the relief efforts while enjoying a last minute Christmas present, head to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au and purchase/rent our online documentary on Tropical Cyclone Lua.

On behalf of Oz Cyclone Chasers we hope you have a Merry Christmas and are able to spend it with your families and friends and we also think about those people who for one reason or another can't do that this Christmas, we hope our troops serving abroad are able to still enjoy the day tomorrow.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
DECEMBER 28 2012

Our Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Video update tonight:


Tropical Cyclone Mitchell - 0:00 - 9:20
Tropical Cyclone Freda - 9:20 - 18:40
New NT/WA Tropical LOW next weekend 18:40 - 22:20
Our Competition winner in the Oz Cyclone Chasers "Where will Tropical Cyclone Mitchell form?" online poll 22:20 - 24:20

Please click on a video ad if you'd like to support what we do

Next update tomorrow night 30th December 2012