OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
SEVERE CYCLONE RUSTY
FEBRUARY 26th 2013 AM

We take a look at the very latest in model guidance for TC Rusty, models starting to agree that despite a stall being likely just off the coast (along with further strengthening of the cyclone) it is becoming less likely that Karratha will be directly impacted. It is also becoming more likely of a coastal crossing near to or just east of Port Hedland which is great news for avoiding the Storm Surge potential.

We will have a new update tonight looking at how the guidance has changed over time. It is critical that landfall be modelled accurately as a shift to the west could cause a lot of extra damage to the Port Hedland foreshore region.

We are still looking at extreme rainfall in the area over the next 3 days.

Next update tonight around 7:30PM WST In the meantime get all your official weather information about this system from www.bom.gov.au/cyclone



Thanks for watching, and remember if you'd like to support us please check out an in-video ad that might interest you, it's free and helps support us to do what we love doing.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
FEBRUARY 26th 2013 PM EDITION

We take a look at the following:
(1) Coral Sea and/or Gulf likely to fire later next week along with a chance of a new NW WA system
(2) Take a very in-depth look at Rusty
(3) Take a brief look at a LOW just off the coast of Bowen in Queensland
(4) Take a brief look at what could become Cyclone Sandra.

Remember for all latest advices and official information always head to www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Thanks for watching.

is there cyclones or monsoons forcast for the Darwin region

No mate - monsoon yes but nothing extreme expected.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
CYCLONE RUSTY VIDEO UPDATE
FEBRUARY 27th 2013 AM EDITION

We take a look at some positive model guidance from the overnight runs. Rusty has intensified into a Category 4 but has drifted slowly Eastwards over the past 6 hours. Model guidance has now come into line with a coastal crossing near Pardoo which means that Hedland may miss the very destructive core of the system.

Also the threat of storm surge and tidal inundation is diminishing with the system now expected to cross east of Hedland.

As always we remind you to pay close attention to the official warnings from the BoM



Thanks for watching - tonight's update will deal with all the tropics but the focus remains firmly on Rusty.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
FEBRUARY 27th 2013 PM EDITION


We take a look at the landfall of Rusty which began just after 3:30PM WST and continued for a couple of hours as they eye slowly made its way inland over Pardoo. All the residents have been heard from since the crossing and are ok. We won't know damage in the region until tomorrow and we will likely not have great meteorological data from the area due to lack of measurement instruments. Pardoo Station does at least have a barometer though, so we should get an idea of the lowest pressure values in the eye.

Overall our focus shifts east with a weak LOW off the coast of Townsville not expected to do much in the shorter term. In the medium term, if the LOW remains a feature early next week its potential to develop further will need to be monitored closely.

By next weekend, models are pretty convinced of a strong LOW or cyclone in the Coral Sea. At this stage, by next weekend there appears to be very weak steering influences in the mid levels of the atmosphere so direction of movement is difficult to ascertain (remember though it is a week away still so anything can happen)

The LOW to the south of the Cocos Islands is moving into a very unfavourable region and should die. So there won't be a straight follow on system from Rusty.

Next brief update on Rusty tomorrow morning, and a region wide update focusing on the Coral Sea tomorrow night.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 3RD 2013 PM EDITION

This cyclone video update focuses on the developments expected over the Coral Sea. Later this week we should see a LOW pressure system deepen into a very deep monsoonal LOW or Tropical Cyclone in the Coral Sea. It is likely to drift towards the east or south-east away from the coast. In the longer term, the cyclone may become erratic in its movement and there are even models that move the system towards the East coast next week.

So we are pretty confident the Coral Sea will break its cyclonic drought late this week, whether or not the East coast is affected in the longer term remains to be seen.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 4th 2013

We take a look at the upcoming Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone and where it may head. A complex web of upper level features will make predicting its longer term movement a bit of a tricky process. But for now we know that it should move towards the East and away from the Queensland coast at least until this weekend.

We also take a look at some interesting and clear guidance suggesting a new LOW in the Gulf Of Carpentaria or Western Cape York early to mid next week.

With the MJO stuck in Phase 6, the entire Queensland and West pacific region is in the hot spot region for at least the next 2 weeks and maybe even longer.

Next update Tuesday night.

If you like our content please share it with your friends and if you'd like to support us, please click on an in-video advertisement that interests you.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 5th 2013

We are likely to see Sandra named by the weekend and it is likely to drift to the east. Now how far it drifts to the East may be critical in its medium term direction and its long term strike potential. We go through the guidance from global computer models along with why they show what they show.

Our next update is tomorrow night.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 6th 2013

Tonight we continue to focus on the Coral Sea. TC Sandra is likely to be named in the next 24-48 hours and move away from Queensland until the weekend. After the weekend, the system is expected to adopt a general southward movement. Whether that southward movement be towards the SE, S or SW is where models vary. Tonight we show you which models are going for which solution.

Next update Thursday night (Please note there will be no update on Saturday)

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 7th 2013

Tonight's video firmly focuses on TC13U (soon to be called Sandra). Sandra is expected to be named tomorrow before rapidly intensifying starting tomorrow night. The Bureau of Meteorology predict that the cyclone is likely to hit Severe Category 3 status in 48-72 hours.

The movement of Sandra is the hot topic of conversation, and overall the next three days of movement is being modelled very well. We expect a NE movement followed by an East movement tomorrow and followed by an ESE movement on Saturday and eventually a more south to south-easterly movement on Sunday. After that time, the steering flow breaks down and movement becomes very difficult to model accurately.

In the extremely long term (mid to late next week) we see some global computer models drift the system back to the South-West but as they do so, an increase in vertical wind shear and decrease in Oceanic heat content means the cyclone may not be a cyclone anymore. Other guidance continues to push the system southwards well away from the Queensland coastline.

Also late next week we may see the formation of a new LOW in the Northern Gulf Of Carpentaria or far Northern Coral Sea. There is no clear indication of a dominant steering flow at the time, but it is still very early days yet.

Next update Jan 8 (no update on Jan 9)

If you'd like to support us please share our content with others interested in Tropical Cyclones. Or if you like any of the in-video ads and find them interesting, by clicking on those ads you can help support what we do Thanks for watching.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 8th 2013

Tonight we check out Sandra which looks less likely to impact the Eastern Australian coastline but more likely to impact New Caledonia.

AND

Oz Cyclone Chasers are getting excited at a new prospective LOW pressure system that models are talking about forming over the far northern parts of the continent later next week.. We are seeing computer models already agreeing between each other about a new LOW or cyclone forming later next week either in the far Northern Coral Sea or the Northern Gulf Of Carpentaria. Guidance is also pretty confident on an initial East movement followed by a south movement.

We will be watching this new potential region like a hawk next week along with the hint of a LOW forming off the Kimberley coastline too around the same time late next week/next weekend.

Our next update will be on Sunday night March 10 where we will hopefully have much closer model agreement on Sandra's long term movement.

Thanks for watching and please remember to share our videos with anyone who may be interested in them.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 10th 2013

In tonight's update we spend the first 11 minutes talking about Severe Cyclone Sandra and then the next 7 minutes talking about future Tropical Cyclone development over the Northern Gulf and Coral Sea. This future cyclone will be called Tim.

Next Update March 11, thanks for watching and remember if you'd like to support us, please buy our mobile phone app available on the iTunes or Google Play marketplace or click on an in-video ad that might interest you .

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 11th 2013



0:00 - 5:00 = Tropical Cyclone Sandra
5:00 - 21:00 = Tropical LOW in Gulf and future movement and potential development.

Next update March 12

Thanks for watching

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS
AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE
MARCH 12th 2013

Tonight's video looks at the end of Sandra and how wind shear is killing off the system. It also then takes a multi-model look at the new LOW in the Gulf which is still expected to push east across the far northern Cape York peninsula before intensifying into a weak tropical Cycllone in the Northern Coral Sea. It is expected to move in an Easterly direction before slowing to the south and weakening. It is then expected to continue weakening while pushing towards the west and the Qld coast. There is some model guidance that continues to adopt a track similar to Sandra and whether this guidance verifies is highly dependant on whether the system maintains its vertical structure. At this stage we believe that is unlikely and the more likely scenario is that the system curves back towards Queensland as a weakening LOW.

Also please check out Western pacific Weather www.westernpacificweather.com/2013/03/05...tpacwx-logo-contest/ for a logo contest so if you're feeling creative give it a go and design a logo for one of the most popular weather pages for the SE Asian and Western Pacific region.

0:00 - 4:30 = Sandra
4:30 - end = Future cyclone Tim.




Thanks for watching and please remember to share our videos with anyone who may be interested in them.